June 2014 -- Not Misery, Not Joy

In the ensuing 22 months Phoenix's development community and its cotillion of economists and analysts have patiently waited for the expected "boom that always follows the bust". Now it seems that the message we have been teaching of "the New Normal" is starting to sink in. WIthout employment growth locally and natioinally very little run up in construction levels and land values can be expected. Phoenix metro's experience with job growth has been uneven over the last 40 months. Adding 125,000 jobs in the period January 2011 through April 2014, the gas seems to have gone out of the 'recovery' in the last 12 months, only 25% of the job gains over the entire period were logged in this 12 month period -- a sign of deceleration. Certain stand out sectors leading growth during 2011 and 2012 -- Construction, Aerospace manufacturing, Transportation and Warehousing, Banking and key areas of Professional Services have completly fizzled in the last 12 months ending in April 2014.

New growth has  been sholdered by the "Eds and Meds" sectors -- hospital  and education sector employment represent a 22% share of the last 12 months' gain; Tourism related sectors -- 21% share; Local government education -- 17% share; and, auspiciiously, Employment services -- 12% share.

In the "old days" Arizona could depend upon foot-loose mid-westerners growing tired of weather, family ties and declining employment opportunities, to take a 'flyer' and migrate here. Now with unsettled employment conditions here, rising rental housing costs and rising temperatures, we can't count on migrants' optimistic assessment of our economic oppotunities.

Unless, of course, we look to those coming from south of the border. It is my hunch that the long term economic salvation for Arizona will be to embrace immigration reform and relax our policies. But that is a discussion for another time.

September 2012 --  Misery Abates in Phoenix

Phoenix's misery index is declining! A year or so ago Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal wrote a story that showed Phoenix as having the highest level of 'misery' in the market place. 

The story was criticized by local 'real estate experts' and indeed the methodology was pretty simplistic. In our view, however, the writers got it about right...things were pretty bad.

Giving no credibility to the original study methodology, we thought it would be interesting to update the study calculations to see where Phoenix stands today. And the results show a broad and specific improvement in the Misery Index for Phoenix, and especially when compared with the United States.

Read more about our methodology updating the Misery Index here.

May 2012 -- Homebuilder Conditions Encouraging in Phoenix

In association with our associate firm, Griffin Consulting, we took a relook at the general conditions underlying the housing market for the Phoenix metropolitan area. This involved having discussions with homebuilders, management companies and other knowledgable individuals in order to plumb their outlook for the market. The results are encouraging and are shownin the graphic to the right.

February 2012 -- Airport Land Partners Advance Rifle Airpark Zoning

A major engagement for Development Economics and Eric Rasmussen over the past decade has been the planning and entitlement of the 1,200-acre businss park in Rifle, Colorado called Rifle Airpark. Over the last decade a substantial amount of infrastructure and improvements to the Garfield County Regional Airport (RIL) has taken place through dedicated public-private partnerships between Rifle Airpark's General Manager Robert A. Howard and Garfield County, the City of Rifle, the Airport Authority and Colorado Mountain College.

In late January, the latest step forward occurred with the approval by the City Council of Rifle of the Annexation of Rifle Airpark into the City and a Preliminary Development plan. This paves the way for subdivision and sale of major tracts of land once the City approves a Final Plan, expected later in 2012. Rifle is an actively developing area within the energy-rich western Slope of Colorado. Equidistant from the resort communities of Vail and Aspen, the town serves as an affordable home base for residents and businesses serving the energy and tourism sectors of the intermountain West.